Subjective modal verb 'dürfte' (supposition)

Modal verbs have a subjective use in which they express the speaker's assessment rather than permission, ability or obligation. In its subjective use, dürfte (the Konjunktiv II of dürfen) expresses a likely assumption - English probably / is likely to / I'd say. It signals fairly high probability with a polite, cautious tone.

Structure: dürfte + Infinitiv (the main verb in the infinitive at the end).

• Er dürfte schon zu Hause sein. - He is probably home already.
• Das dürfte kein Problem sein. - That shouldn't be a problem (I'd say).
• Die Reparatur dürfte etwa 200 Euro kosten. - The repair will probably cost around 200 euros.

For a past assumption, use dürfte + Partizip II + haben/sein: Er dürfte das vergessen haben (he probably forgot it).

Common mistakes:

• Reading it as permission: subjective dürfte means probably, not would be allowed to.
• Adding wahrscheinlich redundantly - dürfte already carries the "probably" meaning.

Subjective 'dürfte' expresses a likely assumption (probably).

Subjective use: a likely assumption (probably / I'd guess).

Subjektives 'dürfte' drückt eine wahrscheinliche Vermutung aus.